{"id":266,"date":"2010-04-02T11:02:01","date_gmt":"2010-04-02T19:02:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/?p=266"},"modified":"2010-04-02T11:18:17","modified_gmt":"2010-04-02T19:18:17","slug":"not-just-predicting-the-present-but-the-future-twitter-and-upcoming-movies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/266_not-just-predicting-the-present-but-the-future-twitter-and-upcoming-movies\/","title":{"rendered":"Not just predicting the present, but the future: Twitter and upcoming movies"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/233_search-terms-and-the-flu-preferring-complex-models\/\">Search queries have been used recently<\/a> to &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/googleresearch.blogspot.com\/2009\/04\/predicting-present-with-google-trends.html\">predict the present<\/a>&#8220;, as Hal Varian has called it. Now some initial use of Twitter chatter to predict the future:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The chatter in Twitter can accurately predict the box-office revenues of upcoming movies weeks before they are released. In fact, Tweets can predict the performance of films better than market-based predictions, such as <a href=\"http:\/\/www.hsx.com\/\">Hollywood Stock Exchange<\/a>, which have been the best predictors to date. (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.kk.org\/thetechnium\/archives\/2010\/04\/twitter_predict.php\">Kevin Kelley<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1003.5699\">Here is the paper by Asur and Huberman from HP Labs<\/a>. Also see <a href=\"http:\/\/sloanreview.mit.edu\/improvisations\/2009\/05\/12\/using-online-discussions-to-predict-sales\/\">a similar use of online discussion forums<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But the obvious question from my previous post is, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/233_search-terms-and-the-flu-preferring-complex-models\/\">how much improvement do you get by adding more inputs to the model?<\/a> That is, how does the combined Hollywood Stock Exchange and Twitter chatter model perform? The authors report adding the number of theaters the movie opens in to both models, but not combining them directly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Search queries have been used recently to &#8220;predict the present&#8220;, as Hal Varian has called it. Now some initial use of Twitter chatter to predict the future: The chatter in Twitter can accurately predict the box-office revenues of upcoming movies weeks before they are released. In fact, Tweets can predict the performance of films better [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[72,25,44,37,67,26,78,75,76,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-activity-streams","category-blogging","category-communication","category-consumption","category-culture","category-data-collection","category-markets","category-search","category-statistics","category-surveillance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=266"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":271,"href":"https:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266\/revisions\/271"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.deaneckles.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}