Using social networks for persuasion profiling

BusinessWeek has an exhuberant review of current industry research and product development related to understanding social networks using data from social network sites and other online communication such as email. It includes snippets from people doing very interesting social science research, like Duncan Watts, Cameron Marlow, and danah boyd. So it is worth checking out, even if you’re already familiar with the Facebook Data Team’s recent public reports (“Maintained Relationships”, “Gesundheit!”).

But I actually want to comment not on their comments, but on this section:

In an industry where the majority of ads go unclicked, even a small boost can make a big difference. One San Francisco advertising company, Rapleaf, carried out a friend-based campaign for a credit-card company that wanted to sell bank products to existing customers. Tailoring offers based on friends’ responses helped lift the average click rate from 0.9% to 2.7%. Although 97.3% of the people surfed past the ads, the click rate still tripled.

Rapleaf, which has harvested data from blogs, online forums, and social networks, says it follows the network behavior of 480 million people. It furnishes friendship data to help customers fine-tune their promotions. Its studies indicate borrowers are a better bet if their friends have higher credit ratings. This might mean a home buyer with a middling credit risk score of 550 should be treated as closer to 600 if most of his or her friends are in that range, says Rapleaf CEO Auren Hoffman.

The idea is that since you are more likely to behave like your friends, their behavior can be used to profile you and tailor some marketing to be more likely to result in compliance.

In the Persuasive Technology Lab at Stanford University, BJ Fogg has long emphasized how powerful and worrying personalization based on this kind of “persuasion profile” can be. Imagine that rather than just personalizing screens based on the books you are expected to like (a familiar idea), Amazon selects the kinds of influence strategies used based on a representation of what strategies work best against you: “Dean is a sucker for limited-time offers”, “Foot-in-the-door works really well against Domenico, especially when he is buying a gift.”

In 2006 two of our students, Fred Leach and Schuyler Kaye, created this goofy video illustrating approximately this concept:

My sense is that this kind of personalization is in wide use at places like Amazon, except that their “units of analysis/personalization” are individual tactics (e.g., Gold Box offers), rather than the social influence strategies that can be implemented in many ways and in combination with each other.

What’s interesting about the Rapleaf work described by BusinessWeek is that this enables persuasion profiling even before a service provider or marketer knows anything about you — except that you were referred by or are otherwise connected to a person. This gives them the ability to estimate your persuasion profile by using your social neighborhood, even if you haven’t disclosed this information about your social network.

While there has been some research on individual differences in responses to influence strategies (including when used by computers), as far as I know there isn’t much work on just how much the responses of friends covary. As a tool for influencers online, it doesn’t matter as much whether this variation explained by friends’ responses is also explained by other variables, as long as those variables aren’t available for the influencers to collect. But for us social scientists, it would be interesting to understand the mechanism by which there is this relationship: is it just that friends are likely to be similar in a bunch of ways and these predict our “persuasion profiles”, or are the processes of relationship creation that directly involve these similarities.

This is an exciting and scary direction, and I want to learn more about it.